Poker odds are odd that way

Poker odds are odd that way

POKER ODDS AND SODS
Sometimes analysing a hand from a major tournament after the event can teach us quite a lot about poker odds and how they are only one factor in poker’s Pandora’s box. Let’s take a look at a real life hand from the recent Ultimate Poker Challenge Championship between eventual winner Jeff Schulman and Kristy Gazes who started with the best hole cards. Kristy was holding King-Jack of diamonds against Jeff’s Queen-ten of clubs. At this pre-flop stage Kristy’s King-Jack same-suited was 60% likely to win the pot and Jeff’s same-suited Queen-ten only in with a 40% chance. The flop produced King of clubs-Jack of hearts and four of clubs. This still left Kristy the favourite with a 52% chance of winning against Jeff’s 48%. The turn and the river produced a five and nine of spades, giving under-dog Jeff victory with his nine-ten-Jack-Queen-King straight against Kristy’s respectable but defeated Kings over Jacks. The odds, rather like the Law of the land, can on occasions, be an ass! Odds are just one of the many elements a player uses in the decision making process. What this example demonstrates is that they shouldn’t be relied on in isolation.

POKER TUTORIAL Q & A

Problem A: Imagine you’re on the button with a pair of Jacks. The pot gets raised three times the big blind directly in front of you. With just ten times the big blind in chip value you are short-stacked.

Should you:
1) Call the raise?
2) Double the raise?
3) Muck your cards?
4) Grit your teeth and go all-in?

Problem B: You’re in a major tournament. A handful of players remain. You’re the chip leader. You’re holding Ace and Jack of spades. You raise six times the big blind. The big blind himself goes all-in with ten times the big blind. Do you call ten times the big blind to attempt to win twenty two times its value or do you fold? What’s the percentage play?

POKER TUTORIAL ANSWERS

Answer to A: You go all-in! You’re facing a raise and you’re short-stacked. By going all-in your re-raise should be powerful enough to drive out less than stellar hands. Likely outcome: Heads up with the first raiser. It’s a value bet.

Answer to B: As the chip leader you’re well placed to flush out opposing players in late tournament play. You call! It’s likely your Ace-Jack same-suited will hold up well unless A-Q, A-K or A-A are out there. The odds are with you at ten times the big blind. Value again.


Source: http://www.onlinepokercolumn.com/Poker-Odds-Are-Odd-That-Way.html